Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
