A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
